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Break-Up the Suburbs!

1. What "Breaking Up the Suburbs" Means

NOT:

  • Bulldozing houses
  • Forcing people to move
  • Destroying neighborhoods

YES:

  • Ending single-family zoning (allow duplexes, triplexes, and small apartments)
  • Infill development (build on empty lots and parking lots)
  • Transit expansion (connect suburbs to cities)
  • Mixed-use corridors (commercial strips become walkable)
  • Parking lot reduction (convert to housing)

2. The Suburban Problem

Sprawl Statistics:

  • Urban Land: 3% of US land area (100 million acres)
  • Low Density: Average 2,000 people/sq mile (vs. 25,000 in Paris)
  • Car Dependence: 87% of trips by car (unsustainable)

Environmental Cost:

  • Carbon: Suburbs produce 2x emissions per capita (vs. urban cores)
  • Reason: Driving everywhere (no transit, not walkable)
  • Lost Farmland: 1 million acres/year converted to sprawl

Economic Cost:

  • Infrastructure: 3x more expensive per capita (spread out)
    • Roads, sewers, water, and electric (longer distances)
  • Municipal Bankruptcy: Suburbs can't afford their own infrastructure
    • Example: Suburbs built in 1960s, infrastructure fails 2020s with no money to fix

Social Cost:

  • Segregation: Suburbs are whiter and wealthier than cities (exclusionary zoning)
  • Isolation: Car culture = less community interaction
  • Inequality: Suburban schools funded by property taxes (rich suburbs, poor cities)

3. The Transformation Strategy (Gentle Densification)

Phase 1: Legalize Missing Middle (2025-2030)

What It Is:

  • "Missing Middle": Housing between single-family and apartment towers
    • Duplexes, triplexes, and quadplexes
    • Townhouses and rowhouses
    • Small apartment buildings (3-6 units)
    • Courtyard housing

Current: Illegal in 75% of residential land (single-family zoning)

Change: Legalize everywhere

Impact:

  • Gentle Density: Neighborhoods look same (scale), but house 2-3x people
  • Example: Single-family home demolished, replaced by a triplex
    • Before: 4 people (one family)
    • After: 12 people (three families)
    • Same lot, same building height, but triple the density

Minneapolis Model (Real - 2020):

  • Abolished Single-Family Zoning: Allowed triplexes everywhere
  • Results (2020-2024):
    • 5,000 new units are built (formerly single-family zones)
    • Rents stabilized (increased supply)
    • No neighborhood "character" is destroyed (design guidelines maintained)
    • More diverse and affordable neighborhoods

National Impact:

  • 50 million single-family lots: In the US
  • If 20% Redevelop: 10 million lots
  • 2.5 Units on Average: 25 million new homes (from 10 million lots)
  • Solves the Housing Crisis: Without sprawl
Phase 2: Transit-Oriented Development (2025-2040)

The Strategy:

  • Build Transit: Light rail, BRT, commuter rail to suburbs
  • Upzone Around Stations: 10-story apartments within 1/2 mile
  • Downzone Parking Lots: Convert to housing

Example: Suburban Rail Station Transformation

Before:

  • Commuter Rail Station: Surrounded by 500 parking spaces (10 acres)
  • Single-Family Homes: 1/4 mile away
  • No Density: 2,000 people per square mile

After:

  • Parking: Reduced to 100 spaces (underground garage)
  • 9 Acres: Become mixed-use
    • 800 apartments (4-8 stories)
    • Ground floor: Shops, cafes, grocery co-op
    • Bike parking (1,000 spaces)
  • Density: Jumps to 10,000 people/sq mile (within 1/2 mile of station)
  • Car Trips: Drop 60% (residents take the train)

National Impact:

  • 5,000 Suburban Rail Stations: Across the US
  • Average 400 Units per Station: 2 million units
  • Plus: 10,000 bus rapid transit stations × 100 units = 1 million units
  • Total: 3 million units near suburban transit
Phase 3: Commercial Strip Transformation (2030-2045)

The Problem:

  • Every Suburb: Has commercial strips (arterial roads)
  • Strip Malls: Single-story, giant parking lots
  • Fast Food, Big Box: Car-oriented, ugly, and inefficient land use

The Transformation:

Step 1: Add Transit:

  • Bus Rapid Transit: Down commercial strips (every 10 minutes)
  • Protected Bike Lanes: Separate from cars

Step 2: Upzone:

  • Allow 4-8 Sstories: On commercial strips
  • Require: Ground floor retail, upper floor housing

Step 3: Infill Development:

  • Parking Lots: Become mixed-use buildings
  • Single-Story Strip Malls: Add 3-4 stories housing on top

Example: Suburban Arterial Road

Before (2025):

  • 5-Lane Road: Constant traffic
  • Strip Malls: 1 story, 70% parking lot
  • Land Use: 10 acres of strip mall
    • 30,000 sq ft retail
    • 200 parking spaces (8 acres)

After (2035):

  • Same 10 Acres:
    • Ground floor: 40,000 sq ft retail (expanded)
    • Floors 2-5: 200 apartments (800 people)
    • Parking: 50 spaces (underground) + bike parking
  • Result: Same retail + 200 homes + BRT (walkable)

National Impact:

  • 100,000 Miles: Commercial strips in suburbs
  • If We Redevelop 30%: 30,000 miles
  • Average: 100 units per mile = 3 million units
  • Plus: Walkable suburbs (can live without car)
Phase 4: Golf Course Conversion (2030-2050)

The Facts:

  • 30 million acres: Golf courses in US (size of Pennsylvania)
  • 15,000 Courses: Nationwide
  • Water Use: 2 billion gallons/day (wasteful)
  • Pesticides: Poisoning watersheds
  • Exclusivity: Rich people's recreation (closed to public)

The Transformation:

Option 1: Rewild (Environmental Justice):

  • Convert to Nature: Forests, wetlands, and prairies
  • Public Parks: Open to all (not just golfers)
  • Restore Ecosystems: Native plants and wildlife habitat

Option 2: Housing (Urban Courses):

  • Urban/Suburban Golf Courses: Near cities, valuable land
  • Convert to Neighborhoods: Mixed-use, transit-oriented
  • Example: 150-acre golf course
    • 100 acres: Housing (2,000 units - low-rise garden apartments)
    • 50 acres: Public park (open to all, not golf)

National Impact:

  • If We Convert 30% of Urban Courses: 1,000 courses
  • Average 1,000 Units per Course: 1 million units
  • Plus: 10 million acres are rewilded (environmental benefit)

4. Why This Matters

Environmental:

  • Carbon Reduction: 40% less emissions (less driving)
  • Farmland Is Saved: Stop sprawl and preserve agriculture
  • Water Conservation: Golf courses eliminated
  • Biodiversity: Rewilded land and connected green corridors

Economic:

  • Infrastructure Savings: $200 billion/year (less sprawl to maintain)
  • Transit Ridership: Triple (more people near transit)
  • Municipal Solvency: Density pays for infrastructure

Social:

  • Affordability: 30 million new units (supply increases, prices fall)
  • Integration: Mixed-income neighborhoods (end segregation)
  • Community: Walkable neighborhoods (people interact)
  • Equity: Everyone has transit access (not just car owners)

Health:

  • Active Transport: Walk/bike instead of drive (physical activity)
  • Air Quality: Less car pollution
  • Mental Health: Community connection (less isolation)

5. How to Do This Fairly

Protect Current Residents:

1. No Forced Displacement:

  • Current Homeowners: Can stay (not forced to sell)
  • Densification: Happens through choice (owner sells, redevelops)
  • Timeline: 20-30 years (gradual, organic)

2. Property Rights Are Respected:

  • Zoning Change: Doesn't force action (just allows it)
  • Owner Decides: Sell to developer OR stay OR build ADU
  • No Eminent Domain: (Except for transit, done fairly with above-market compensation)

3. Anti-Gentrification Protections:

  • When Lots Redevelop: 50% units must be affordable (requirement)
  • CLT Right of First Refusal: Community can buy before speculators
  • Rent Control: On existing rentals (prevent displacement)
  • Property Tax Circuit Breaker: Long-term residents are not taxed out

4. Community Benefits:

  • New Transit: Free for residents (reduced car costs)
  • Better Services: Density funds better schools, parks, and libraries
  • Walkability: Safer streets and more local businesses