Managed Retreat & Relocation

1. The Need for Retreat

Climate Change = Some Areas Are Uninhabitable:

• Sea Level Rise: Coastal properties (Miami, NYC, Louisiana, and the Pacific Islands)
• Wildfire Risk: California mountains and the Southwest
• Flooding: Floodplains (Missouri River and Mississippi River)
• Heat: Phoenix and Las Vegas (water scarcity and extreme heat)

Cannot Stay:

• Repeated Disasters: Rebuild 3 times, flooded 3 times = unsustainable
• Increasing Costs: Insurance is unaffordable and infrastructure is failing
• Safety: People will die if they stay

Managed Retreat:

• Government-Assisted Relocation: From high-risk to safer areas
• Voluntary: (Never forced, but incentivized)
• Dignified: Not "flee in panic," but planned, supported, and community-preserving

2. National Climate Relocation Program

Identify High-Risk Areas:

• NOAA, USGS, and FEMA: Map out areas that will be uninhabitable by 2050
  • Sea level rise: 0-10 feet above sea level coastal zones
  • Wildfire: High-risk wildland-urban interface
  • Flood: 100-year floodplains (now flooding every 10 years)
  • Heat: Areas exceeding 125°F wet bulb temperature

Voluntary Buyouts:

• Government Offers to Buy: Properties in high-risk areas
• Price: Pre-disaster fair market value (not discounted)
  • Plus: a 30% relocation bonus (help with moving costs)
• Example: $300k home + $90k relocation bonus = $390k total
• Demolition: Property demolished and land returned to nature (wetlands, parks, and reefs)

Community Relocation:

• Not Individual: Entire communities should relocate together
  • Preserves social networks, culture, and institutions
• Example: Isle de Jean Charles (Louisiana)
  • Native American community and the land sinking/eroding
  • FEMA Funded Their Relocation (2016): Entire community moved inland, together
  • New land, rebuilt homes, community center, and church (preserved their culture)

Relocation Destinations:

• Higher Ground, Lower Risk: Inland cities and northern states
• New Affordable Housing: Government builds social housing in safe areas
  • Relocatees get priority access
• Jobs: Job training and guaranteed employment in new location
• Schools: Children enrolled immediately

Reparative Justice:

• BIPOC Communities: Historically forced into flood zones and toxic sites (redlining)
  • Relocation = opportunity to remedy injustice
• Indigenous Peoples: First right to return to ancestral lands (if safer)
  • Or: New land chosen by the tribe

3. Funding

• $200 billion (20 Years): National climate relocation fund
  • 2 million households x $100k average = $200B
• Cheaper Than: Repeated disaster relief ($100B/year forever)

4. Example Relocations

1. Miami Beach (Sea Level Rise):

• 50,000 Residents: Living 0-5 feet above sea level
• Frequent Flooding: King tides flood streets monthly (getting worse)
• Buyout Offer: Purchase all properties and relocate residents inland (Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, or Tallahassee)
• Cost: $20 billion (expensive real estate)

2. Paradise, CA (Wildfire):

• After Camp Fire: Should not rebuild (will burn again)
• Offer relocation: To safer areas (Sacramento, Bay Area)
• 26,000 Residents: $5 billion total relocation cost

3. Louisiana Coast (Subsidence + Hurricanes):

• 100,000 Residents: In disappearing coastal parishes
• Community Relocations: Entire towns move inland
• Cost: $10 billion